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With a completely unknown history, I set to measuring and checking level and plumb of the various components. I deduced that the problem probably lay with the swingarm, but just to be sure that it wasn't the subframe (more likely), I fitted a spare subframe...with the same results. So off came the subframe, wheel, shock and swingarm and on went a spare swingarm followed by the subframe and fender. Success — everything lined up nicely.
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This was followed by a light application of Mother's and then hand-buffed.
The result is better than I'd hoped for. Amazingly, the chain wear decal survived the entire ordeal.
Job done!